Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Stochastic tipping points in climate dynamics.
A crucial question recently raised in climate dynamics concerns abrupt climate transitions: Are they due to a tipping point (TP) being exceeded, or is fast noisy dynamics the cause of their excitation? In this respect, a case study based on a low-order ocean model is developed to show that in an excitable dynamical system perturbed by noise (a possible climate condition) the TPs may have limite...
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In climatic time series abrupt changes are observed. We hypothesize that these abrupt changes are due to nonlinear responses inherent in the climate system, specifically, so-called tipping points. This behaviour result from non-linear climate response to either external forcing, internal stochastic fluctuations or a combination of both. At some point the forcing will cause the climate to jump f...
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We model optimal policy when the probability of a tipping point, the welfare change due to a tipping point, and knowledge about a tipping point's trigger all depend on the policy path. Analytic results demonstrate how optimal policy depends on the ability to affect both the probability of a tipping point and also welfare in a post-threshold world. Simulations with a numerical climate-economy mo...
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Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate...
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Scientific research highlights the possibility that man-made greenhouse gas emissions can trigger irreversible regime shifts in the climate system, so-called tipping points. The literature is particularly concerned with the possibility that a first regime shift, e.g., reinforcing the temperature response to emissions, significantly increases the likelihood of other tipping points, starting a do...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Statistical Physics
سال: 2019
ISSN: 0022-4715,1572-9613
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x